Generalized Expectancy for Success Scale- revised (GESS-R)

Abstract

The Generalized Expectancy for Success Scale- revised (GESS-R) is a standardized psychometric instrument designed to evaluate an individual’s broad, cross-situational anticipation of positive outcomes and personal efficacy across diverse life domains. Developed by W. Daniel Hale, L. R. Fiedler, and C. D. Cochran in 1992 as a psychometric refinement of the original 30-item instrument created by Bobbi Fibel and W. Daniel Hale in 1978, the GESS-R comprises 25 self-report items. Items are evaluated on a 5-point Likert scale ranging from 1 (Highly improbable) to 5 (Highly probable), generating an overall score between 25 and 125, with five items reverse-coded to mitigate acquiescence bias. Grounded in Julian B. Rotter’s Social Learning Theory, the scale operationalizes the construct of generalized expectancy—a stable cognitive disposition reflecting the subjective probability that one’s efforts will culminate in success rather than failure when facing novel, ambiguous, or complex life circumstances. Psychometric investigations across clinical, collegiate, and community populations demonstrate high internal consistency, with Cronbach’s alpha coefficients consistently ranging from .90 to .92 and test-retest reliability estimates exceeding .80 over multi-week intervals. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses confirm a robust general factor representing global expectancy for success, underpinned by interconnected thematic facets including interpersonal competence, professional accomplishment, self-regulation, and problem resolution. The GESS-R demonstrates robust convergent validity through positive correlations with generalized self-efficacy, internal locus of control, self-esteem, and dispositional optimism, alongside strong discriminant validity evidenced by substantial negative correlations with depressive symptomatology, hopelessness, and psychological distress. As a reliable, cost-effective, and theoretically cohesive assessment tool, the GESS-R remains widely employed in counseling psychology, behavioral medicine, clinical diagnostics, and organizational behavior research.

Keywords

Generalized Expectancy for Success Scale- revised, GESS-R, generalized expectancies, Julian Rotter, social learning theory, dispositional optimism, self-efficacy, psychometrics, outcome expectancies, psychological assessment

Authors

The revised instrument, the Generalized Expectancy for Success Scale- revised (GESS-R), was developed and validated by:

• W. Daniel Hale, Ph.D. — Professor of Psychology at Stetson University and subsequently Special Advisor to the President of Johns Hopkins Bayview Medical Center and Director of Healthy Community Partnerships. His research focuses on cognitive patterns in mental health, healthy aging, and clinical psychology assessment.
• L. R. Fiedler, Ph.D. — Clinical researcher and psychometrician collaborating on the operationalization of cognitive expectancy models and clinical measurement refinement.
• C. D. Cochran, Ph.D. — Academic psychologist specializing in psychometric scaling, social learning correlates, and behavioral assessment methodology.

The revised scale builds directly upon the foundational theoretical and empirical work of the original 30-item GESS created by Bobbi Fibel, Ph.D. and W. Daniel Hale, Ph.D. in 1978 at Stetson University.

Purpose

The primary purpose of the Generalized Expectancy for Success Scale- revised (GESS-R) is to provide an empirically validated, brief, and psychometrically sound measurement of an individual’s generalized belief in their ability to achieve desired outcomes across a broad spectrum of human functioning. Unlike situation-specific or task-delimited expectancy measures, the GESS-R captures a cross-situational cognitive schema that systematically influences behavioral initiation, goal directedness, persistence in the face of obstacles, and emotional resilience.

In clinical psychology and psychotherapy, the GESS-R serves as an informative diagnostic adjunct and treatment-monitoring tool. Individuals presenting with clinical depression, dysthymia, or generalized anxiety frequently demonstrate deeply entrenched negative cognitive schemas characterized by pervasive expectations of failure, learned helplessness, and low self-worth. By administering the GESS-R, clinicians can baseline a client’s global expectancy orientation, detect catastrophic anticipation patterns, and track shifts in cognitive attribution throughout cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Because the scale evaluates future-oriented expectations across professional, interpersonal, financial, and personal coping domains, it aids therapists in identifying whether negative expectancies are universally systemic or clustered around specific functional dimensions.

In behavioral medicine and health psychology, the GESS-R is applied to assess psychological resilience, treatment adherence, and rehabilitation trajectories. Patients undergoing treatment for chronic illnesses, cardiovascular rehabilitation, or post-surgical recovery who exhibit higher generalized expectancies for success consistently demonstrate greater adherence to medical regimens, more adaptive coping strategies, and lower vulnerability to reactive affective disturbances. The scale enables researchers to quantify how positive cognitive orientations buffer against physiological stress responses and facilitate constructive health behaviors.

Furthermore, in organizational, vocational, and academic counseling contexts, the GESS-R is utilized to investigate career self-efficacy, leadership potential, burnout vulnerability, and academic achievement. By differentiating individuals who anticipate favorable outcomes through sustained effort from those who passively expect defeat, academic institutions and organizational development programs can design targeted psychoeducational interventions to bolster agency, self-regulatory persistence, and problem-solving capacities.

Psychological Construct

The psychological construct evaluated by the GESS-R is generalized expectancy for success. In psychological literature, an expectancy is defined as a subjective probability held by an individual that a specific behavior or engagement will lead to a particular outcome. While specific expectancies are tied to well-defined, familiar contexts (such as an individual’s subjective estimation of passing a specific mathematics exam), generalized expectancies represent overarching, trans-situational beliefs synthesized from historical reinforcement experiences across multiple life domains.

Generalized expectancy for success represents a stable individual difference variable situated at the intersection of motivation, personality, and social cognition. It encapsulates the enduring cognitive disposition to anticipate that one’s deliberate actions will yield positive, rewarding, and fulfilling outcomes, even when navigating unfamiliar, unstructured, or ambiguous situations. The construct is multi-faceted in its experiential manifestations, encompassing four interrelated experiential domains:

• Interpersonal and Social Competence: The subjective probability of establishing meaningful personal relationships, leaving favorable impressions upon strangers, exerting constructive interpersonal influence, and resolving relational difficulties (e.g., item 5: “have successful close personal relationships”; item 7: “make a good impression on people I meet for the first time”).
• Occupational, Professional, and Financial Attainment: The expectation of accomplishing career milestones, obtaining deserved professional advancements, meeting financial objectives, and receiving peer recognition (e.g., item 4: “get the promotions I deserve”; item 8: “attain the career goals I set for myself”; item 16: “reach my financial goals”).
• Self-Regulatory Problem Solving and Coping: The subjective confidence in one’s capacity to navigate unforeseen crises, find pragmatic solutions to novel dilemmas, and maintain behavioral poise under pressure (e.g., item 6: “handle unexpected problems successfully”; item 11: “be able to solve my own problems”).
• Existential and Global Life Optimism: An overriding belief that long-term investments in personal goals will bear fruit and that positive experiences will ultimately eclipse life’s adversities (e.g., item 18: “discover that the good in life outweighs the bad”; item 19: “be successful in my endeavors in the long run”).

Crucially, the construct is distinguished from naive Pollyannaism or unrealistic optimism. A high generalized expectancy for success does not denote magical thinking or an expectation of reward without behavioral execution; rather, it reflects a strong cognitive appraisal that constructive action, persistence, and strategic effort will be met with commensurate reinforcement from the external environment.

Theoretical Framework

The GESS-R is structurally and philosophically anchored in Julian B. Rotter’s (1954, 1966) Social Learning Theory of personality. Rotter posited that human behavior within specific situations is governed by the interaction between the subjective value of the reinforcement and the expectancy that a given behavior will successfully elicit that reinforcement. Rotter formalized this relationship in the basic formula:

BP_s,r,a = f(E_s,r,a & RV_r,s)

Where BP represents the behavior potential (the likelihood of engaging in a specific behavior), E represents expectancy (the subjective probability that the behavior will yield the reinforcement), and RV represents reinforcement value (the degree to which the individual prefers that outcome). According to Rotter, when an individual encounters a novel, unfamiliar, or ambiguous situation ($s$), they lack specific past experiences from which to derive a situation-specific expectancy ($E’$). Under such conditions of ambiguity, behavior is predominantly governed by generalized expectancies ($GE$), derived from cumulative reinforcement histories across prior related situations:

E_s = f(E’_s + GE / N_s)

As situational familiarity ($N_s$) approaches zero, the weight of generalized expectancies becomes paramount. Bobbi Fibel and W. Daniel Hale (1978) recognized that while Rotter had extensively explored generalized expectancies related to the nature of causality (i.e., Internal versus External Locus of Control), there was an absence of a standardized scale measuring generalized expectancies specifically regarding the probability of success versus failure. Rotter’s locus of control construct assesses whether outcomes are attributed to internal agency (effort, ability) or external forces (luck, fate, powerful others), but it does not evaluate whether an individual expects favorable outcomes to materialize.

The theoretical framework of the GESS-R also interfaces meaningfully with subsequent cognitive and motivational models. It shares conceptual affinity with Albert Bandura’s (1977, 1997) Social Cognitive Theory, specifically the distinction between self-efficacy expectancies (the belief that one can execute the required behavior) and outcome expectancies (the belief that executing the behavior will produce a given outcome). The GESS-R predominantly captures a globalized integration of both: a respondent endorsing items such as “succeed at most things I try” expresses both confidence in personal capability and faith in the responsiveness of the environment to reward that effort.

Additionally, the GESS-R anticipated modern theories of dispositional optimism, such as Michael F. Scheier and Charles S. Carver’s (1985) expectancy-value model of behavioral self-regulation. However, whereas Scheier and Carver’s Life Orientation Test (LOT) focuses on diffuse, fatalistic, or generalized optimism (e.g., “In uncertain times, I usually expect the best”), the GESS-R explicitly links future expectancies to individual action, competence, interpersonal interactions, and goal-directed pursuits.

Validity

The construct, convergent, discriminant, and criterion validities of the GESS-R have been comprehensively established through empirical investigations across non-clinical, collegiate, and psychiatric samples.

Construct and Factorial Validity

During the development of the revised instrument, Hale, Fiedler, and Cochran (1992) eliminated five psychometrically redundant or low-loading items from the original 30-item GESS (Fibel & Hale, 1978). The resulting 25-item GESS-R yielded improved internal structure and item-total correlations ranging from .38 to .67, confirming that every item contributes meaningfully to the latent construct of generalized expectancy for success. Construct validity is demonstrated by the scale’s sensitivity to cognitive changes following targeted psychological interventions, such as cognitive restructuring and mastery-based behavioral activation.

Convergent Validity

Convergent validity is supported by strong, statistically significant correlations between the GESS-R and established psychological inventories measuring overlapping constructs:

• Dispositional Optimism: The GESS-R demonstrates high positive correlations with the Life Orientation Test (LOT) and LOT-R ($r = .55$ to $.68, p < .001$), confirming that while the constructs are closely aligned, the GESS-R captures unique variance related to self-directed accomplishment and behavioral competence.
• Self-Esteem: Moderate to strong positive correlations are observed with the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSE) ($r = .52$ to $.61, p < .001$), reflecting that positive future expectancies co-occur with favorable self-worth appraisals.
• Generalized Self-Efficacy: Substantial correlations with the General Self-Efficacy Scale (GSE; Schwarzer & Jerusalem) ($r = .58$ to $.66, p < .001$) affirm the cognitive-agentic foundation of the scale.
• Internal Locus of Control: Positive correlations with Rotter’s Internal-External Locus of Control Scale ($r = .30$ to $.42, p < .01$) indicate that individuals expecting success are more likely to perceive outcomes as contingent upon their own actions rather than chance.

Discriminant Validity

The GESS-R demonstrates robust discriminant validity, differentiating generalized optimism about success from affective distress, generalized psychopathology, and passivity:

• Depression and Hopelessness: Strong, negative correlations have been documented with the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) ($r = -.52$ to $-.64, p < .001$) and the Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS) ($r = -.60$ to $-.71, p < .001$). Depressed patients score significantly lower on the GESS-R compared to non-clinical controls.
• State and Trait Anxiety: Moderate inverse correlations are observed with the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI; Trait subscale: $r = -.40$ to $-.48, p < .001$), demonstrating that high expectancies for success buffer against persistent apprehension.
• Social Desirability: Correlations with the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale remain modest ($r = .18$ to $.26$), indicating that responses on the GESS-R reflect genuine self-appraisals rather than mere impression management.

Criterion and Predictive Validity

Prospective studies indicate that baseline GESS-R scores predict academic persistence among university students, task endurance in laboratory-induced failure protocols, and physical functional recovery among cardiovascular patients. Individuals with higher GESS-R scores display significantly less cognitive disruption following experimental failure manipulations, demonstrating greater resilience and rapid re-engagement with challenging tasks.

Reliability

The psychometric reliability of the GESS-R has been extensively confirmed across multiple studies, demonstrating high internal consistency and longitudinal temporal stability.

Internal Consistency

In the seminal revision study conducted by Hale, Fiedler, and Cochran (1992), the GESS-R yielded a Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of .90 in an undergraduate collegiate sample ($N = 347$) and .91 in an adult community sample. Subsequent empirical investigations across independent cohorts have replicated these metrics, with alpha values consistently ranging between .89 and .92. The five reverse-scored items (items 9, 13, 17, 20, and 23) demonstrate satisfactory corrected item-total correlations (typically between .40 and .58), confirming that scale homogeneity is maintained despite reverse directionality.

Split-Half Reliability

Evaluations of split-half reliability utilizing the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula have yielded coefficients ranging from .87 to .91, indicating balanced item equivalence and psychometric parity across the two halves of the 25-item instrument.

Test-Retest Reliability

The temporal stability of the GESS-R reflects its status as an enduring cognitive trait rather than a fluctuating emotional state:

• Over a two-week interval, Hale et al. (1992) observed a test-retest correlation coefficient of $r = .83$ ($p < .001$).
• Over a six-week interval, retest correlations remained robust at $r = .75$ to $.79$.
• In extended longitudinal assessments spanning six months, the stability coefficient settled at approximately $r = .68$, indicating substantial trait stability while preserving sufficient sensitivity to detect genuine clinical changes resulting from major life transitions or psychotherapeutic interventions.

Factor Analysis

The internal latent structure of the GESS-R has been evaluated through both Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) across diverse normative and clinical samples.

Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA)

In the initial psychometric re-evaluation by Hale, Fiedler, and Cochran (1992), principal component analyses and common factor analyses with both orthogonal (Varimax) and oblique (Promax) rotations were conducted. The scree test and eigenvalue analysis (Kaiser-Guttman criterion) revealed a dominant first factor with an eigenvalue substantially exceeding the remaining factors (accounting for 35% to 42% of the total scale variance). All 25 items exhibited primary loadings exceeding .35 on this general factor, with the vast majority exceeding .45 to .65.

When oblique multi-factor solutions were examined, four interrelated, correlated sub-dimensions emerged, reflecting distinct domains of generalized success expectancies:

1. Interpersonal/Relational Success: Encompassing items assessing social influence, conversational acceptance, and intimate relations (e.g., items 2, 5, 7, 10, 17, 25).
2. Professional and Vocational Attainment: Encompassing items evaluating career progression, financial success, and public recognition (e.g., items 4, 8, 14, 16, 24).
3. Self-Efficacy and Problem Resolution: Items capturing autonomous coping, crisis resolution, and resilience in response to unexpected obstacles (e.g., items 1, 3, 6, 11, 15, 22).
4. Existential Goal Realization / Resignation (Inverted): Defined primarily by the reverse-scored items evaluating persistent frustration, recurring life failure, and thwarted plans (e.g., items 9, 13, 18, 19, 20, 23).

Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA)

Subsequent confirmatory investigations have evaluated competing structural models, comparing a strictly unidimensional one-factor model, an orthogonal four-factor model, and a hierarchical (higher-order) model where the four first-order factors load onto a general “Generalized Expectancy for Success” construct. While a unidimensional model provides adequate fit indices and justifies the use of a single composite score in routine research and clinical practice, the hierarchical model achieves superior global fit:

• Comparative Fit Index (CFI): .92 to .95
• Tucker-Lewis Index (TLI): .91 to .94
• Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA): .048 to .056 (90% CI [.042, .061])
• Standardized Root Mean Square Residual (SRMR): .044

Because the first-order factors are highly intercorrelated ($r = .55$ to $.72$), psychometric consensus supports the aggregation of all 25 items into a single, global composite score for most diagnostic and investigative purposes.

Instrument / Measurement Tool

The GESS-R is an objective, standardized, paper-and-pencil or computer-administered self-report instrument. The structural and operational characteristics of the scale are detailed below:

• Instrument Designation: Generalized Expectancy for Success Scale- revised (GESS-R)
• Foundational Predecessor: Generalized Expectancy for Success Scale (GESS; Fibel & Hale, 1978; 30 items)
• Measurement Paradigm: Self-administered psychological assessment questionnaire
• Total Number of Items: 25 items
• Item Prompt / Stem: Each item begins with the standardized anticipatory prompt: “In the future I expect that I will . . .”
• Response Format: 5-point Likert-type scale with the following anchors:
  • 1 = Highly improbable
  • 2 = Improbable
  • 3 = Equally improbable and probable, not sure
  • 4 = Probable
  • 5 = Highly probable
• Reverse-Scored Items: Five items are worded negatively and must be reverse-coded prior to computing the total composite score: Item 9, Item 13, Item 17, Item 20, and Item 23. For these items, scoring is inverted as follows: $1 = 5, 2 = 4, 3 = 3, 4 = 2, 5 = 1$.
• Scoring Algorithm: Sum the numerical values of all 25 items (incorporating the inverted values for the reverse-scored items). Total scores range from a minimum of 25 to a maximum of 125.
• Score Interpretation:
  • 25 – 65 (Low Generalized Expectancy): Indicates pervasive pessimism, pronounced negative cognitive anticipation, vulnerability to learned helplessness, and elevated risk for depressive symptomatology.
  • 66 – 95 (Moderate / Average Generalized Expectancy): Reflects a balanced, normative appraisal of future outcomes, characterized by realistic self-confidence tempered by situational caution.
  • 96 – 125 (High Generalized Expectancy): Denotes robust dispositional optimism, heightened self-regulatory persistence, high personal agency, and psychological resilience under adversity.
• Administration Time: Approximately 5 to 8 minutes.
• Target Population: Adolescents (aged 16+) and adults across educational, occupational, community, and clinical settings.

Permissions & Fee and Test Year

The Generalized Expectancy for Success Scale- revised was formally published in 1992 by W. Daniel Hale, L. R. Fiedler, and C. D. Cochran, following the 1978 publication of the original GESS by Bobbi Fibel and W. Daniel Hale. The scale was developed for academic, scientific, and clinical research purposes and has been widely republished in academic clinical measurement handbooks, notably in Measures for Clinical Practice and Research (Corcoran & Fischer, 2013) and Tools for Strengths-Based Assessment and Evaluation (Simmons & Lehmann, 2013).

The GESS-R is broadly accessible within the public academic domain for non-commercial research, institutional evaluation, and clinical practice without licensing fees, provided that appropriate bibliographic attribution is accorded to the original authors. Researchers planning commercial utilization, diagnostic software integration, or widespread digital dissemination should confirm institutional copyright clearance through the primary journal publisher (Journal of Clinical Psychology / John Wiley & Sons, Inc.) or directly contact the senior author, Dr. W. Daniel Hale.

References

• Bandura, A. (1977). Self-efficacy: Toward a unifying theory of behavioral change. Psychological Review, 84(2), 191–215. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.84.2.191
• Bandura, A. (1997). Self-efficacy: The exercise of control. W. H. Freeman and Company.
• Corcoran, K., & Fischer, J. (Eds.). (2013). Measures for clinical practice and research: A sourcebook (Volume 2: Adults) (5th ed.). Oxford University Press.
• Fibel, B., & Hale, W. D. (1978). The Generalized Expectancy for Success Scale: A new measure. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 46(5), 924–931. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-006X.46.5.924
• Hale, W. D., Fiedler, L. R., & Cochran, C. D. (1992). The revised Generalized Expectancy for Success Scale: A validity and reliability study. Journal of Clinical Psychology, 48(4), 517–521. https://doi.org/10.1002/1097-4679(199207)48:4<517::AID-JCLP2270480414>3.0.CO;2-U
• Rotter, J. B. (1954). Social learning and clinical psychology. Prentice-Hall. https://doi.org/10.1037/10788-000
• Rotter, J. B. (1966). Generalized expectancies for internal versus external control of reinforcement. Psychological Monographs: General and Applied, 80(1), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0092976
• Scheier, M. F., & Carver, C. S. (1985). Optimism, coping, and health: Assessment and implications of generalized outcome expectancies. Health Psychology, 4(3), 219–247. https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-6133.4.3.219
• Simmons, C. A., & Lehmann, P. (Eds.). (2013). Tools for strengths-based assessment and evaluation. Springer Publishing Company.

13. Items of the Scale (Questionnaire)